Del Potro's injury puts Argentina's Davis Cup chances in doubt

Prior to the start of the Davis Cup clash between Spain and Argentina, Argentina were firm favourites to take a 2-0 lead on the opening day. But at the end of the opening day's play, both countries were level at 1-1, with Argentina's David Nalbandian comfortably defeating David Ferrer 6-3 6-2 6-3 in the opening rubber, before Spain's Feliciano Lopez produced a minor upset to defeat Juan Martin Del Potro 4-6 7-6(2) 7-6(4) 6-3.

With the groin injury that Del Potro picked up towards the conclusion of his encounter, the hopes of Argentina taking home their first Davis Cup looks more uncertain than ever. Today's doubles rubber should be the decisive factor in this final, where the winning nation should be favoured to lift the trophy on Sunday. Spain should start the match as slight favourites given their better track record in Davis Cup doubles, whereas Nalbandian/Calleri have shown an inconsistent level in the past, most notably in the 2006 final where the Argentine pair meekly went down to Marat Safin and Dmitry Tursunov in three very one-sided sets.

The day started off brightly for the Argentine team, with David Nalbandian, relishing the opportunity of playing for his country, finding his best tennis to dispatch of David Ferrer comfortably. Nalbandian has openly expressed his burning desire to win the Davis Cup, and he was extremely fired up for the occasion. In this frame of mind, Nalbandian is tough to beat, showing the sort of killer instinct that is often lacking on the main tour. That added purpose and determination in his mindset means that he doesn't give away any more cheap points than necessary, and on the occasion where he throws in a couple of poor errors, he bounces right back and continues to pour the pressure on his opponent. Ferrer had chances in this match, but whenever it felt like the match was building up to a contest, Nalbandian either edged it out to hold onto his serve, or bounced back strongly to break serve in the following game.

The match was more hard fought than the score suggested with both players often being pushed to the brink on their own service games. The match started off in a similar vein to many of their previous matches, featuring long, extended rallies, with Nalbandian being more adventurous in his shot selection. Nalbandian took an early break lead, then Ferrer started to maintain better depth and his accuracy on his groundstrokes to briefly threaten Nalbandian. But he was struggling to effectively set up points on his own serve, where he was often being attacked and immediately put on the back foot.

Ferrer has been struggling with his form as of late, and that showed in his patchy performance. Ferrer doesn't strike me as the kind of player that has the inner confidence to rise to the occasion, when he doesn't have the match wins under his belt. On the other hand, he is a battler and once he gets his teeth into a match, he can be dangerous. Ferrer needed to be rock solid to pose any threat, but it never looked like he had the necessary feel on the groundstrokes, often muscling it into the court.

Nalbandian has the superior shotmaking abilities to Ferrer, often catching Ferrer off-guard with changes of pace down-the-line and angled shots off both sides, but particularly on the forehand. The key for Nalbandian was to attack selectively, but slow down the pace when in a defensive position unless if attempting a winning shot. In particular, he was winning a lot of points on the return of serve, nailing that forehand crosscourt when receiving the wide swinging serve on the deuce court. By the end, the amount of winners started to mount for Nalbandian, while Ferrer started to lose belief after he squandered break points early in the third set.

It was up to Feliciano Lopez to keep Spain's hopes alive, and he delivered in abundance. Sometimes Lopez can be overly reliant on his own serve, and can be prone to making awful errors, but against Del Potro, he put in one of the most consistently effective performances I've seen from him. Lopez started off slow, being outplayed easily from the back of the court, and he handed the early break of serve to Del Potro with four sloppy errors. I think of Lopez as more of a short point player, thinking that eventually his groundstrokes would break down against most of his peers.

Usually when players face Lopez, they look to target his major weakness, the backhand where he is severely lacking an attacking shot, and resorts to the slice on most occasions. It's like the safe haven for players to go to when they're on the dead run. But this is a match-up that strongly favours Lopez, because Del Potro has been known to struggle with low slice backhands. He also likes to get into a rhythm from the back of the court, which Lopez does not provide him with.

Del Potro showed a lack of tactical awareness, displaying no particular pattern of play in order to win points. His accuracy was poor, letting Lopez taking more of an aggressive mindset, and quickly move up to the centre of the court, to put away volleys. He needed to take him out of court better and move the Spaniard around. On occasion, I noted him trying to trading crosscourt forehands to Lopez's backhand side, but Lopez promptly ran around it hit a forehand. He attempted a similar pattern of play against Roger Federer in Madrid, and got burned consistently. He needs to learn that you need to either open up the court to find an opponent's weakness or do so with much better accuracy.

Lopez seemed to enjoy the pace of Del Potro's groundstrokes, as well as the low bounce on the court which enabled him to shorten his backswings and redirect his shots. His groundstrokes were holding up remarkably well, even in the longer rallies. Importantly, he was also executing the lower difficulty shots well, taking care of the high volleys, put away shots and serving consistently well, which can sometimes be a problem with him. He never buckled under pressure, apart from one slight hiccup early in the third set and kept up a consistently high level to defeat Del Potro, who struggled with a groin injury from midway through the third set.

Will Argentina be able to overcome the pressure to capture their first Davis Cup?

The upcoming Davis Cup final between Spain and Argentina, has been described by the Argentine players as “the most important in Argentine tennis history”, in particular by David Nalbandian and Jose Acasuso. There has been a buzz around the media, the players and the public alike in the last week or so, seeing that this is a golden opportunity for Argentina to finally capture their first Davis Cup title, and to do so in front of their supporters. Guillermo Vilas, undoubtedly the most successful player Argentina ever produced, never managed to lead his country to the coveted title.

The pressure will be immense. Opportunities like this don’t come across often, and the Argentine players want to be a part of national history. The bookies are heavily leaning towards Argentina as heavy favourites and rightfully so. Both David Nalbandian and Juan Martin Del Potro have form on their side, as well as the advantage of surface choice which has seen them lay an indoor surface which was reported as being quicker than Paris Bercy and Shanghai.

From a spectator's point of view, the upcoming final was dealt a major blow with Rafael Nadal announcing his withdrawal, a week ago. The original line-up promised to be one of the most mouth-watering clashes in recent years, and could have gone right down to the wire. It promised to be a battle of heavyweights, with Rafael Nadal trying to fight his way through a partisan crowd on his least favoured surface against a fired up David Nalbandian, or attempting to withstand the barrage of big groundstrokes from Del Potro.

But as it stands, the main talking point of the tie is ‘Will Argentina be able to deliver under pressure, and will Spain be able to challenge them?’ And unfortunately for Argentina, if they are victorious, the amount of recognition they receive worldwide will be diminished significantly.

Now let’s take a closer look at the potential matches that will be taking place over the next three days.

David Nalbandian vs David Ferrer
Matches between Ferrer and Nalbandian have a tendency to be hard fought and tough mentally and physically, with long, exhausting rallies in abundance. Ferrer holds the advantage in the head-to-head, leading 6-3 in this matchup, but Nalbandian leads their hardcourt meetings 3-2. Last time they met in Paris Bercy last year, Nalbandian won in a three hour, three set contest, and prior to that, Ferrer defeated Nalbandian in five long sets after Nalbandian squandered a match point, missing a putaway backhand.

Nalbandian will have to remain patient and take advantage of his volleying skills and court sense to finish the point off at net. Ferrer has been struggled to find anything close to his best form as of late, and will need to rediscover his consistency to be of any threat. Nalbandian will likely rise to the occasion, while Ferrer might need to take advantage of his underdog status to find his form.

Prediction: Nalbandian in four sets.

Juan Martin Del Potro vs Feliciano Lopez
Feliciano Lopez, on paper possesses the game to upset the rhythm of Juan Martin Del Potro. He has a vicious lefty serve, a tricky slice backhand and regularly ventures to the net. Del Potro over the last few months has proven to be especially effective in disposing lower-ranked opponents, with his controlled big game, but this particular match-up should cause Del Potro more problems than if he were to face a more consistent, but equally effective player, like say Juan Carlos Ferrero.

Lopez posted a good indoor season himself for his standards, but isn’t really in the same class as Del Potro. I would expect Lopez to take it to a couple of tie-breaks and snatch a set, but he has too much of a tendency to throw in a poor quality service game every now and then which should cost him dearly.

Prediction: Del Potro in four sets.

Jose Acasuso/Agustin Calleri vs Feliciano Lopez/Fernando Verdasco
Lopez/Verdasco are a firmly established doubles team and have had some relative success on the Davis Cup stage, including in September when they pushed the Bryans to a fifth set in the semi-finals. Acasuso/Calleri have a short history together, however, they did reach the Basel semi-finals this year notably defeating the Polish duo Fyrstenberg/Matkowski. Lopez and Verdasco have better reflexes and flair than the Argentine team, and team up well together, which should give them the crucial advantage.

David Nalbandian could still be slotted in. However, Alberto Mancini will be wanting to keep Nalbandian fresh for the final singles, if need be, especially considering that Nalbandian succumbed to fatigue in his singles match against Nikolay Davydenko in early September. The smart move would be to stick with Acasuso/Calleri if Argentina go up 2-0, because I can’t see Feliciano Lopez defeating Nalbandian in a fifth rubber.

Prediction: Lopez/Verdasco in three sets (five sets if Nalbandian plays)

Juan Martin Del Potro vs David Ferrer
If Ferrer doesn’t find his best tennis, this is exactly the kind of matchup that Del Potro should relish. Del Potro is as consistent as Ferrer is, but has more firepower and a more effective serve. Ferrer doesn’t possess the game to take Del Potro out of his comfort zone, to get him moving out wide nor the serve to keep the match close. Ferrer will try hard to hang around and frustrate Del Potro but Del Potro has a good head on his shoulders. The only troublesome situation that Del Potro could find himself in, is if he tires out, because then his footwork starts to deteriorate and he becomes nowhere near as consistent.

Prediction: Del Potro in three sets

Bottom line: Argentina to defeat Spain 3-1

David Nalbandian vs Feliciano Lopez
This rubber won’t eventuate if Argentina have already clinched it, but in the scenario of it going down to a fifth rubber, I would strongly back Nalbandian. Nalbandian is more equipped to deal with Lopez than Del Potro, and should be able to hit enough effective returns and passing shots low down at Lopez’s feet. Additionally, Lopez has little experience on the big stage compared to Nalbandian, who possesses one of the best Davis Cup records, and has the experience of having played a previous Davis Cup final to draw from. It would be a tough ask for him to clinch the tie here.

Prediction: Nalbandian in three sets

Nalbandian and Del Potro take Argentina to a commanding 2-0 position

The Davis Cup semi-final tie between Argentina and Russia promised to be a closely contested encounter on paper, but it didn’t turn out that way as Argentina took a comfortable lead winning both rubbers in straight sets. With Juan Martin Del Potro’s sudden rise up the rankings, Argentina are starting to look like a highly formidable team and they showed this yesterday as both Del Potro and David Nalbandian outclassed their Russian opponents in straight sets, Nikolay Davydenko and Igor Andreev.

The first rubber contested between David Nalbandian and Igor Andreev was a slightly inconsistent affair especially in the first set, but in the end, Nalbandian’s variety, tactical game and ability to play the big points was the decisive factor. For anyone that has seen Nalbandian play Davis Cup before, especially in Argentina, will know that Nalbandian thrives in Davis Cup playing for his country, and in this kind of atmosphere. He is especially animated in these kinds of matches and plays with more focus than in main tour matches.

Andreev, in comparison is hard to read in terms of what mental state he is in for these matches and seems to have his ‘game face’ on for the entire match. Andreev, himself has been known to perform impressively for his country on some occasions, the win against Fernando Gonzalez in Chile last year comes to mind specifically although this year, he also lost to Radek Stepanek at home, on clay in three convincing sets.

The match started off evenly poised in the first set with both players holding serve, and only one break point being fashioned which was on Nalbandian’s serve. The level of play from both players was inconsistent, but both were effective enough to take care of their own service games. Nalbandian looked flat-footed with his movement often coughing up errors getting caught out of position, although he was clearly not lacking in energy.

Andreev was efficient in his game, and stuck to his strengths during the match using his heavy and accurate serve to good effect and making use of his favoured off-forehand, although it started to look more predictable as the match went on. Despite some inconsistent play, Nalbandian looked ready for the battle and although he was lacking in execution, he wasn’t going to let it deter him and he continued to show purpose in his shot selections and strike his groundstrokes with conviction.

In the first point of the first set tie-break, Nalbandian missed a backhand return long by a couple of millimetres, which would have been a winner, then he later missed a forehand deep by a similar amount which allowed Andreev to take a commanding 4-1 lead in the tie-break. It looked like Nalbandian’s luck was all going against him when one of his shots clipped the top of the tape and was called out. But it was then overruled, which Andreev disputed to no avail. That changed the momentum as Andreev started to get tight and tried to bludgeon his way out of trouble with big shots, which appeared more forced than usual. Nalbandian then played his best point of the set to win the set moving Andreev out of position after an extended rally, and quickly seizing the opportunity at the net.

The second and third sets had a different tone, with Nalbandian starting to play with more confidence and looking like he had the match under control. His footwork was starting to look better and he was getting more comfortable in his movement, moving more effortlessly around the court.

As the match progressed, Nalbandian was starting to learn that he could open up the court, then approach to Andreev’s backhand and finish off the point at the net which was a lower risk strategy than what he was doing before. Andreev was finding it harder to take control of the points, although he was able to remain on serve until the final game in the third set. Nalbandian played the best game of the match to break serve to win the match, which he won with two return winners and a trademark backhand down-the-line.

The match between Juan Martin Del Potro and Nikolay Davydenko turned out to be a one-sided affair right from the outset, with the exception of the end of the second set where Del Potro nearly relinquished a double break advantage. Del Potro is currently on a run of good form winning 23 of his 24 last matches, and is a player on the rise. He had previously played two singles matches in Davis Cup for Argentina, but both away matches in Austria and Sweden respectively.

Given that this was his debut at home and that with his current run of form brings high expectations, it was a test to see if Del Potro could handle the pressure. Based on what I had seen of him in the last few months, I expected that he would react to the occsion positively, given his relatively calm demeanour, which he did. Davydenko, in comparison has been known to struggle to find his best tennis in this competition and is often slow to adapt to changing surfaces.

The match was characterized by long baseline rallies with both players playing controlled aggressive tennis, with the difference being that Del Potro was doing it much better with more margin of error on his shots (or so it seemed given how well he was playing) whereas Davydenko was trying to hit closer to the lines and was often the one making the errors at the end of points.

One telling statistic in the first set was the winners-unforced error count which was a mere 2-2 for Del Potro suggesting that he was winning the majority of points by forcing errors. Davydenko could not seem to get any advantage on his serve as they started to engage in extended rallies on the majority of points.

The second set started in the same vein as the first and it looked like it was going to be an embarrassing rout for Davydenko at 4-1 and two breaks down. Del Potro started to get nervous with more errors coming off his racquet while Davydenko started to get the upper hand in more of these long rallies. The game at 5-3 was the climax of the match, which was extended to five or six deuces until Del Potro finally served out the set.

One interesting thing I noticed in this match was how in these rallies, Del Potro looked every bit as impressive defensively as Davydenko. He doesn’t look as effortless with his movement and sometimes it looks as if he is taking a giant lunge (even though he isn’t) but he positions himself well and this was particularly evident in one point in the third set when he bent his knees all the way down to find an exceptional angle on the backhand passing shot winner.

As soon as Del Potro won the second set, normal service resumed and he continued to break Davydenko’s serve at will wrapping up the match with ease 6-1 6-4 6-2.