Will Argentina be able to overcome the pressure to capture their first Davis Cup?

The upcoming Davis Cup final between Spain and Argentina, has been described by the Argentine players as “the most important in Argentine tennis history”, in particular by David Nalbandian and Jose Acasuso. There has been a buzz around the media, the players and the public alike in the last week or so, seeing that this is a golden opportunity for Argentina to finally capture their first Davis Cup title, and to do so in front of their supporters. Guillermo Vilas, undoubtedly the most successful player Argentina ever produced, never managed to lead his country to the coveted title.

The pressure will be immense. Opportunities like this don’t come across often, and the Argentine players want to be a part of national history. The bookies are heavily leaning towards Argentina as heavy favourites and rightfully so. Both David Nalbandian and Juan Martin Del Potro have form on their side, as well as the advantage of surface choice which has seen them lay an indoor surface which was reported as being quicker than Paris Bercy and Shanghai.

From a spectator's point of view, the upcoming final was dealt a major blow with Rafael Nadal announcing his withdrawal, a week ago. The original line-up promised to be one of the most mouth-watering clashes in recent years, and could have gone right down to the wire. It promised to be a battle of heavyweights, with Rafael Nadal trying to fight his way through a partisan crowd on his least favoured surface against a fired up David Nalbandian, or attempting to withstand the barrage of big groundstrokes from Del Potro.

But as it stands, the main talking point of the tie is ‘Will Argentina be able to deliver under pressure, and will Spain be able to challenge them?’ And unfortunately for Argentina, if they are victorious, the amount of recognition they receive worldwide will be diminished significantly.

Now let’s take a closer look at the potential matches that will be taking place over the next three days.

David Nalbandian vs David Ferrer
Matches between Ferrer and Nalbandian have a tendency to be hard fought and tough mentally and physically, with long, exhausting rallies in abundance. Ferrer holds the advantage in the head-to-head, leading 6-3 in this matchup, but Nalbandian leads their hardcourt meetings 3-2. Last time they met in Paris Bercy last year, Nalbandian won in a three hour, three set contest, and prior to that, Ferrer defeated Nalbandian in five long sets after Nalbandian squandered a match point, missing a putaway backhand.

Nalbandian will have to remain patient and take advantage of his volleying skills and court sense to finish the point off at net. Ferrer has been struggled to find anything close to his best form as of late, and will need to rediscover his consistency to be of any threat. Nalbandian will likely rise to the occasion, while Ferrer might need to take advantage of his underdog status to find his form.

Prediction: Nalbandian in four sets.

Juan Martin Del Potro vs Feliciano Lopez
Feliciano Lopez, on paper possesses the game to upset the rhythm of Juan Martin Del Potro. He has a vicious lefty serve, a tricky slice backhand and regularly ventures to the net. Del Potro over the last few months has proven to be especially effective in disposing lower-ranked opponents, with his controlled big game, but this particular match-up should cause Del Potro more problems than if he were to face a more consistent, but equally effective player, like say Juan Carlos Ferrero.

Lopez posted a good indoor season himself for his standards, but isn’t really in the same class as Del Potro. I would expect Lopez to take it to a couple of tie-breaks and snatch a set, but he has too much of a tendency to throw in a poor quality service game every now and then which should cost him dearly.

Prediction: Del Potro in four sets.

Jose Acasuso/Agustin Calleri vs Feliciano Lopez/Fernando Verdasco
Lopez/Verdasco are a firmly established doubles team and have had some relative success on the Davis Cup stage, including in September when they pushed the Bryans to a fifth set in the semi-finals. Acasuso/Calleri have a short history together, however, they did reach the Basel semi-finals this year notably defeating the Polish duo Fyrstenberg/Matkowski. Lopez and Verdasco have better reflexes and flair than the Argentine team, and team up well together, which should give them the crucial advantage.

David Nalbandian could still be slotted in. However, Alberto Mancini will be wanting to keep Nalbandian fresh for the final singles, if need be, especially considering that Nalbandian succumbed to fatigue in his singles match against Nikolay Davydenko in early September. The smart move would be to stick with Acasuso/Calleri if Argentina go up 2-0, because I can’t see Feliciano Lopez defeating Nalbandian in a fifth rubber.

Prediction: Lopez/Verdasco in three sets (five sets if Nalbandian plays)

Juan Martin Del Potro vs David Ferrer
If Ferrer doesn’t find his best tennis, this is exactly the kind of matchup that Del Potro should relish. Del Potro is as consistent as Ferrer is, but has more firepower and a more effective serve. Ferrer doesn’t possess the game to take Del Potro out of his comfort zone, to get him moving out wide nor the serve to keep the match close. Ferrer will try hard to hang around and frustrate Del Potro but Del Potro has a good head on his shoulders. The only troublesome situation that Del Potro could find himself in, is if he tires out, because then his footwork starts to deteriorate and he becomes nowhere near as consistent.

Prediction: Del Potro in three sets

Bottom line: Argentina to defeat Spain 3-1

David Nalbandian vs Feliciano Lopez
This rubber won’t eventuate if Argentina have already clinched it, but in the scenario of it going down to a fifth rubber, I would strongly back Nalbandian. Nalbandian is more equipped to deal with Lopez than Del Potro, and should be able to hit enough effective returns and passing shots low down at Lopez’s feet. Additionally, Lopez has little experience on the big stage compared to Nalbandian, who possesses one of the best Davis Cup records, and has the experience of having played a previous Davis Cup final to draw from. It would be a tough ask for him to clinch the tie here.

Prediction: Nalbandian in three sets